
Betting is the theme as
Derek Simon takes you from Wall Street to the Winner's Circle discussing everything from the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) to (PMS) Pari-Mutuel Success!
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Using the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) as a model for his Efficient Pool Hypothesis (EPH), Mark Ripple shares his insights on how to discover value at the racetrack in this American Turf Monthly article.
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EQUISULTANTS INTERNATIONAL

Are you throwing darts at a board?
Let's take a walk from Wall Street to the Winner's Circle
Navigating the seemingly opposite and intricate worlds of Wall Street and the racetrack for financial gain can be tricky yet many of the principles can be extrapolated from one to the other. For instance, the Efficient Market Hypothesis is the basis for my Efficient Pool Hypothesis. The EMH argues that stocks are never undervalued because educated investors labor so hard at uncovering them, while the EPH proposes that there are no true overlays for the sole reason that educated horse players work so hard to discover them. It's frustrating to think that after countless hours of examining past performance lines in order to predict the outcome of a race, that at the end of the day our return on investment (ROI) could have been markedly higher had we simply thrown darts at the pages of the Daily Racing Form.
However, the good news is that there are flaws with both the EMH and EPH and exploiting them will enable the serious handicapper to identify races and horses that are most likely to produce inefficient odds, overlays, or "value plays".
~~~Mark Ripple
Value Wagering for Pari-Mutuel Success
The Key to Achieving a 25% ROI (or better)
Folks often assume that all it takes to win at the racetrack is a little knowledge: read a few books, know the difference between a Beyer speed figure and aspirin and "voila," playing the ponies for profit becomes only slightly more difficult than withdrawing money from an ATM machine. Of course such notions are painfully naïve, akin to believing the campaign promises of politicians or a Brett Favre retirement speech.
The truth is few forms of gambling can be more hazardous to one’s wealth than "playing the ponies." With takeout rates (and breakage) approaching 30% on certain types of wagers, it doesn’t take a mathematician to understand the difficulty of turning a profit, especially if one is addicted to "action." To make matters worse, with the advent of simulcasting and online wagering, racetrack bettors have grown increasingly more sophisticated. The folks relying on hope and a hatpin are largely gone — and they’ve taken the easy edges with them.
So how does one profit at the races? Well, the answer is relatively straightforward: bet overlays (horses with odds greater than their actual chance of winning). Of course, finding overlays is easier said than done — but it can be done. Years ago, I studied a variety of different races — races for greyhounds, thoroughbreds, Arabians, as well as flat races, jumping events, etc. — in order to develop my Win Factor Method, which assigns "fair" odds to every entrant in every race I analyze.
Now, here's something you won’t often hear from people who make fair odds lines: they are only as good one’s handicapping. In other words, a fair odds line is absolutely meaningless if the fair odds don’t reasonably approximate a horse’s chances of winning. My own handicapping success has been predicated on accurately determining what value is and what value is not.
When I was a co-host of "Thoroughbred Connection," an Internet radio show sponsored by TVG and others, my free picks returned a 25.6% ROI, while at VegasInsider.com my free and premium picks returned 27.4% per selection. I was able to achieve these high rates of return by always insisting on a fair price, no matter what kind of track or race I was betting.
~~~Derek Simon
Leading International Consultants for
Horse Racing Handicapping and Betting
Equisultants.com is a web site dedicated to the value betting approach to handicapping horse racing. Blending both stock market and handicapping theory, Derek Simon and Mark Ripple showcase their advanced knowledge of both and bring a truly unique perspective to wagering on the horse races. Most of the betting public is out there throwing darts at a board. Equisultants doesn't throw darts at a board. We catch value plays and achieve unparalleled Returns On Investment. We clarify, cut through and capture the essence of the winning edge! We identify races and horses that are most likely to produce inefficient odds, or overlays. We give YOU access to the SAME information we use to accomplish this: Win Factor Method (fair odds) reports. Remember that odds lines are only as good as the handicapper who builds them. Stop throwing darts at a board and take advantage of the handicapping synergy that racing experts, Derek Simon and Mark Ripple, have created. Trust. Integrity. Guaranteed. That's Equisultants.com. Come inside, and be a part of Value Handicapping at its finest.
~~~Equisultants.com
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